Maximizing Your Chances of Success: The Case for Making Small Bets

Published on August 18th, 2023 by Cem Hurturk

Have you ever heard the saying, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"? This old adage is often used to encourage people to diversify their investments, but it can also be applied to other areas of life. Instead of focusing all your efforts on just one thing, you can increase your chances of success by making small bets on a variety of different opportunities.

So, what exactly do I mean by "small bets"? A small bet is a low-risk investment of time, money, or resources that allows you to test out an idea or approach without committing too much upfront. This could be something as simple as starting a small side project or trying out a new hobby, or it could be a bigger undertaking like starting a business or pursuing a new career.

Making small bets has several benefits. For one, it allows you to experiment and learn without risking everything. If an idea doesn't pan out, you haven't invested too much in it and can simply move on to the next thing. Small bets also give you the flexibility to pivot and change course if necessary. And when you do hit upon something that works, you can then double down on your efforts and invest more resources into it.

In this article, I'll explore the benefits of making small bets and how they can help me achieve my bigger goals. I'll also look at some examples of successful small bets and offer tips on how you can incorporate this approach into your own life or work. So, let's get started!

The benefits of making small bets

In my opinion, there are several benefits to making small bets:

1. Reduced risk: One of the biggest advantages of making small bets is that it helps to reduce risk. When you focus all your efforts on just one thing, you are taking a bigger risk because if it doesn't pan out, you stand to lose a lot. By making small bets, you spread out that risk and increase your chances of success.
2. Increased flexibility: Small bets also give you more flexibility to pivot and change course if necessary. If you've only invested a small amount of time or resources into an idea, it's easier to walk away from it and try something else. This can help you avoid getting stuck in a dead-end situation.
3. More opportunities for learning: Making small bets allows you to try out new ideas and approaches and learn from them. This can help you develop new skills and knowledge that can be applied to other areas of your life or work.
4. Increased motivation: When you make small bets, you are more likely to see progress and success along the way. This can be a huge motivation boost and help keep you focused and engaged.
5. Better decision-making: Making small bets can also help you make better decisions because it allows you to gather more information and test out different options before committing to something bigger.

Overall, making small bets can be an effective strategy for achieving my bigger goals because it helps to reduce risk, increase flexibility, and provide more opportunities for learning and growth. So, next time you're considering taking on a new project or pursuing a new opportunity, consider making a small bet first!

The dangers of focusing on just one thing

While it may seem like a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket and focus all your efforts on just one thing, there are several potential risks to this approach.

There is always the possibility of failure

First of all, there is always the possibility of failure. Even if you've done your research and put in the hard work, things don't always go as planned. If you've invested all your time, energy, and resources into just one thing and it doesn't pan out, you could end up feeling disappointed and discouraged. This can be especially frustrating if you've sacrificed other opportunities or experiences in the process.

One real-life example of the dangers of focusing on just one thing is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Who would have guessed that the world would suddenly be turned upside down by a global pandemic and that so many people would be forced to close their businesses and stay at home for extended periods of time?

For many people, this was a huge shock and a devastating blow. If they had put all their eggs in one basket and focused all their efforts on just one thing, they may have found themselves struggling to adapt and survive. On the other hand, those who had diversified their efforts and made small bets on a variety of different things were better able to weather the storm and pivot to new opportunities.

For example, a small business owner who had diversified their income streams by offering multiple products or services, or by creating an online presence, was more likely to be able to survive the pandemic than someone who was solely reliant on in-person sales or a single product line. Similarly, an individual who had cultivated a variety of skills and interests was more likely to be able to find alternative ways to make a living or stay engaged and productive during the lockdowns.

This example illustrates how making small bets and diversifying your efforts can help you to be more resilient and adaptable in the face of unexpected challenges.

So, even when it seems like everything is going smoothly, it's important to consider the potential risks and make small bets to help protect yourself and your future.

Another risk of focusing on just one thing is that you may miss out on other opportunities that could be equally or even more rewarding. By spreading your efforts out and making small bets on a variety of different things, you increase your chances of finding something that truly excites and motivates you.

Finally, focusing on just one thing can also be risky because it leaves you vulnerable to external factors that may be beyond your control. For example, if you've poured all your time and energy into a particular business or career and then market conditions change or technology shifts, you may find yourself struggling to adapt.

While it's certainly possible to achieve amazing success by focusing on just one thing, there is also a significant risk of failure and missed opportunities. By making small bets and diversifying your efforts, you can increase your chances of success and keep your options open for the future. So, it's important to weigh the potential risks and rewards before deciding how to allocate your time, energy, and resources.

Examples of successful small bets

Now that I've explored the benefits of making small bets and the risks of focusing on just one thing, let's look at some specific examples of successful small bets.

First, let's consider some examples from the business world. One well-known example is the story of how Airbnb started as a small side project. In 2007, co-founders Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia were struggling to pay rent for their apartment in San Francisco. They came up with the idea of renting out air mattresses in their apartment to attendees of a design conference who couldn't find a place to stay. This small bet eventually turned into Airbnb, one of the most successful and disruptive companies in the sharing economy.

Another example of a successful small bet is the story of how Slack started as a small side project within a larger company. In 2013, Stewart Butterfield and his team were working on a gaming project called "Glitch" at Tiny Speck, a video game company. As they were building the game, they realized that they needed a better way to communicate and collaborate with each other. They developed a chat platform as a small bet and eventually spun it off into a separate company called Slack, which is now a widely used communication and collaboration tool.

Now let's consider some examples from personal life. One example is the story of how a person named Jane decided to take a small bet on a new hobby. Jane had always been interested in photography, but she had never taken it up as a serious hobby because she was intimidated by the learning curve and the cost of equipment. However, she decided to make a small bet by purchasing a used digital camera and signing up for a beginner's photography class. This small bet eventually turned into a passion that Jane pursued for many years, eventually leading to the publication of her own photography book.

Another example is the story of how a person named Tom decided to take a small bet on a new career. Tom had been working as a software engineer for several years, but he had always had a secret dream of becoming a writer. He decided to make a small bet by setting aside a few hours each week to work on writing projects and eventually published a successful novel.

These examples illustrate how making small bets can lead to big successes in both the business world and personal life. By taking a low-risk approach and testing out new ideas, you can increase your chances of finding something that truly excites and motivates you. So, don't be afraid to take a chance and make a small bet – you never know where it might lead!

How to make small bets

Now that you've learned about the benefits of making small bets and some examples of successful small bets, you might be wondering how you can incorporate this approach into your own life or work. Here are a few tips on how to make small bets:

1. Set aside a small budget or time frame for experimentation: One way to make small bets is to set aside a small budget or time frame for experimentation. This could be a few hours each week, a small percentage of your income, or a specific amount of money that you can use to try out new ideas or projects.
2. Look for small, low-risk opportunities to test out new things: Keep an eye out for small, low-risk opportunities to test out new things. These could be small side projects or hobbies, or even small investments in new businesses or technologies.
3. Take on small, short-term commitments: Another way to make small bets is to take on small, short-term commitments that allow you to try out new things without committing too much upfront. For example, you could volunteer for a short-term project, sign up for a short course, or take on a short-term internship.
4. Seek out mentors or advisors: When making small bets, it can be helpful to seek out mentors or advisors who can provide guidance and support. These could be friends, colleagues, or professionals in your field who have experience with similar projects or opportunities.
5. Keep an open mind: It's important to keep an open mind and be willing to try out new things. Don't be afraid to take a chance and make a small bet – you never know where it might lead.
6. Embrace boredom: One important tip for making small bets is to allow yourself time to get bored. As I mentioned in my article, "The Benefits of Boredom: Why You Should Embrace It", boredom can actually be a powerful catalyst for creativity and new ideas. When you allow yourself time to be bored and let your mind wander, you may come up with creative solutions or ideas for new projects or hobbies that you can turn into small bets. So, don't be afraid to embrace boredom and see what it can lead to!

By following these tips, you can start making small bets and increasing your chances of success in your personal or professional endeavors. So, don't be afraid to try something new and see where it takes you!

Wrapping Up

As I've seen, making small bets can be an effective strategy for achieving your bigger goals in both the business world and personal life. By testing out new ideas and approaches on a small scale, you can reduce risk, increase flexibility, and increase your chances of success.

In my own life, I have experienced the power of small bets firsthand, with projects like Octeth, Sendloop, PreviewMyEmail (acquired), Cleanify, IPMonitor, 50saas, and many others that started as small bets and turned into real businesses and achievements. And along the way, these small bets have also brought many amazing friends into my life.

So, next time you're considering a new project or opportunity, remember that making small bets can lead to big rewards – not just in terms of success and achievement, but also in the relationships and connections you make. You never know where it might lead. And when you look back on your life, chances are you'll find that many of your special gifts and achievements are the result of small bets you made along the way – those side projects, new experiences, and hobbies that seemed like a risk at the time, but ended up leading to something amazing.

So don't be afraid to take a chance and make a small bet – you might just find that it pays off in ways you never could have imagined.

Good luck and happy betting!

Bonus: Book Recommendation

If you're interested in learning more about the concept of making small bets and the role of randomness in life and work, you may enjoy the book "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.